# Table 2: Unified Fragility Scorecard

Each row is a major empirical finding across 12 papers on demographics and capital flows.

| Paper | Finding | Coef (69c) | p (69c) | Coef (140c) | p (140c) | Change | Category |
|:---|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|:---|
| 1. Multilateral | Z₁ → CA/GDP (baseline) | 29.1 | 0.103 | 19.0 | 0.238 | -35% | Magnitude-attenuated |
| 1. Multilateral | Z₁×KAOPEN → CA/GDP | 38.9*** | 0.004 | 21.6* | 0.051 | -44% | Magnitude-attenuated |
| 2. Gravity Bilateral | Rate-mediated share of bilateral | 58.0 | — | 23.0 | — | -60% | Magnitude-attenuated |
| 3. Causal ID | CCA tipping point (drop 13 countries) | — | — | — | 0.400 | — | Influential observations |
| 4. Capital Deepening | Z₁ → I/Y (investment effort) | 39.0*** | 0.006 | 32.3*** | 0.006 | -17% | Robust |
| 4. Capital Deepening | Z₁ → ΔK/L (capital deepening) | 0.2*** | 0.007 | -0.0 | 0.453 | -116% | Sign-reversed |
| 4. Capital Deepening | Rule_of_law × Z interaction | 0.0*** | 0.007 | -0.0*** | 0.007 | -200% | Sign-reversed |
| 5. Asset Returns | Z₁ → 10y bond yield | 58.5*** | 0.004 | 43.7** | 0.015 | -25% | Robust |
| 5. Asset Returns | old_dep / youth_dep magnitudes | -16.6*** | 0.001 | -8.3*** | 0.005 | -50% | Magnitude-attenuated |
| 6. Japanification | Z₁ → Japanification index | 0.9* | 0.049 | 1.2*** | 0.003 | +37% | Robust (strengthened) |
| 6. Japanification | Growth channel → inflation channel | — | 0.001 | — | 0.560 | — | Channel-reversed |
| 7. Fiscal Dominance | Expenditure-revenue asymmetry | 2.5*** | 0.001 | 3.3*** | 0.001 | +32% | Robust (strengthened) |
| 7. Fiscal Dominance | Bohn fiscal reaction coefficient | 0.0** | 0.043 | 0.0* | 0.060 | +0% | Robust |
| 8. Crises | old_dep → banking crisis risk | -0.1* | 0.050 | 0.1** | 0.035 | -195% | Sign-reversed |
| 8. Crises | old_dep → CA reversal (protective) | -0.5*** | 0.001 | -0.6*** | 0.001 | +9% | Robust |
| 9. Extensions | Z₁ → income balance | 53.0*** | 0.001 | 41.4*** | 0.001 | -22% | Robust |
| 9. Extensions | Z₁ → ΔKAOPEN (prediction) | — | 0.057 | — | 0.122 | — | Collapsed |
| 10. Trilemma | Z₁ → peg-vs-float (logit) | 10.5*** | 0.001 | 0.8** | 0.040 | -92% | Collapsed |
| 10. Trilemma | Z₁ → MI (monetary independence) | 2.7*** | 0.001 | 0.1 | 0.800 | -95% | Collapsed |
| 10. Trilemma | Eurozone amplification (Z_dev) | -214.0*** | 0.001 | -185.5*** | 0.001 | -13% | Robust |
| 11. Automation | Z×KAOPEN → capital intensity | — | 0.010 | — | 0.500 | — | Collapsed |
| 11. Automation | Z₁ → I/Y (automation paper) | 39.0*** | 0.006 | 32.3*** | 0.006 | -17% | Robust |
| 12. Net/Gross | KAOPEN sign-flip on CA | 14.9* | 0.050 | 5.4 | 0.300 | -64% | Collapsed |
| 12. Net/Gross | Gross positions (winsorized) | 471.0** | 0.050 | — | 0.480 | — | Collapsed |
| 12. Net/Gross | OECD → any external balance | — | 0.010 | — | 0.500 | — | Subsample-null |
| 12. Net/Gross | S-I suppression ratio | 15.0 | — | 15.0 | — | +0% | Robust |

## Fragility Taxonomy

| Category | Count | Description |
|:---|---:|:---|
| Robust | 10 | Survives or strengthens with expansion |
| Magnitude-attenuated | 4 | Same sign, weaker magnitude (>20% change) |
| Collapsed | 6 | Significant → insignificant |
| Sign-reversed | 3 | Coefficient changes sign across samples |
| Channel-reversed | 1 | Dominant mechanism shifts to different channel |
| Subsample-null | 1 | Entire subsample shows no signal |
| Influential observations | 1 | Small group of countries drives result |

## Notes

- **Z₁ → CA/GDP (baseline)**: Significant only in parsimonious spec (38.4, p=0.017)
- **Z₁×KAOPEN → CA/GDP**: Joint test still p<0.001; Z₁×KAOPEN marginal
- **Rate-mediated share of bilateral**: Channel decomposition revised; 77% direct quantity
- **CCA tipping point (drop 13 countries)**: Z₁ collapses from p<0.001 to p=0.40 dropping 13 CCA
- **Z₁ → I/Y (investment effort)**: Survives expansion; F-stat improved 6→28
- **Z₁ → ΔK/L (capital deepening)**: OECD +0.25**; non-OECD null; composition effect
- **Rule_of_law × Z interaction**: Strong institutions → financial not physical capital
- **Z₁ → 10y bond yield**: Murder-suicide confirmed; survives GDP/pc horse race
- **old_dep / youth_dep magnitudes**: Story intact but age-structure coefficients ~halved
- **Z₁ → Japanification index**: Baseline strengthened; channel decomposition reversed
- **Growth channel → inflation channel**: Growth channel null; inflation -3.25*** now dominant
- **Expenditure-revenue asymmetry**: 3.3:1 ratio; nearly perfect replication
- **Bohn fiscal reaction coefficient**: Near-identical to 69c estimate
- **old_dep → banking crisis risk**: Protective→risky in non-OECD; low-income <$4,840
- **old_dep → CA reversal (protective)**: CA reversal protection preserved
- **Z₁ → income balance**: Attenuated 22% but still strongly significant
- **Z₁ → ΔKAOPEN (prediction)**: Marginal→insignificant
- **Z₁ → peg-vs-float (logit)**: 13× attenuation; OECD-specific (Z₁=3.14**)
- **Z₁ → MI (monetary independence)**: OECD-specific; null globally
- **Eurozone amplification (Z_dev)**: 18× vs floaters; survived and reframed
- **Z×KAOPEN → capital intensity**: OECD p<0.01; non-OECD null; OECD-only phenomenon
- **Z₁ → I/Y (automation paper)**: Stable across samples
- **KAOPEN sign-flip on CA**: Lost significance in expanded panel
- **Gross positions (winsorized)**: Only FX reserves robust (Z₁=63-67***)
- **OECD → any external balance**: Complete OECD null on all measures
- **S-I suppression ratio**: S-I masking mechanism preserved